![]() ![]() Turkey’s Libya intervention appears to be following Russia’s Syria playbook – from the legitimising act of a formal invitation that had parliamentary approval (in stark contrast to the covert intervention of all other states involved in the war) to its exploitation of divisions between European countries whenever it felt threatened by them. ![]() Ankara has now demonstrated a firm intent to remove Haftar from Tripoli and its environs. The German initiative was designed to align international actors on a political route out of the morass in Libya, but it did little to deter the United Arab Emirates’ massive mobilisation in support of Haftar. Turkey’s new assertiveness is a direct result of the failure of the Berlin conference held in January. Unless he can regain air superiority, he will only continue to lose. Having lost all towns on the coast and the key airbase of Wutiya in rapid succession, Haftar’s operation now appears to be fatally wounded. ![]() The GNA has built its recent military victories, which have reclaimed nearly all of western Libya from Haftar’s forces, around the support of Turkish air defence systems and a drone campaign targeting Haftar’s bases and supply lines. As Turkey grows more assertive and stamps its authority on Libya, Europeans need to use these shifting dynamics to create a new political reality in Libya – one that might finally have a chance of success, given his dramatically weakened position. The past month – and recent days, in particular – has been one of those moments of transformation: Turkish military support has driven the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) to sweeping victories that have effectively killed off Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s hopes of conquering Tripoli, while creating significant fractures within his camp. Instead, the country oscillates between agonising stalemate and complete upheaval. Libya doesn’t do incremental change, it seems. ![]()
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